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Viruses ; 12(8)2020 07 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-670832

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is the characterization and genomic tracing by phylogenetic analyses of 59 new SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates obtained from patients attending clinical centres in North and Central Italy until the end of April 2020. All but one of the newly-characterized genomes belonged to the lineage B.1, the most frequently identified in European countries, including Italy. Only a single sequence was found to belong to lineage B. A mean of 6 nucleotide substitutions per viral genome was observed, without significant differences between synonymous and non-synonymous mutations, indicating genetic drift as a major source for virus evolution. tMRCA estimation confirmed the probable origin of the epidemic between the end of January and the beginning of February with a rapid increase in the number of infections between the end of February and mid-March. Since early February, an effective reproduction number (Re) greater than 1 was estimated, which then increased reaching the peak of 2.3 in early March, confirming the circulation of the virus before the first COVID-19 cases were documented. Continuous use of state-of-the-art methods for molecular surveillance is warranted to trace virus circulation and evolution and inform effective prevention and containment of future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/classification , Betacoronavirus/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Bayes Theorem , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , Epidemiological Monitoring , Genome, Viral , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Likelihood Functions , Molecular Epidemiology , Molecular Typing , Mutation , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2 , Time Factors , Whole Genome Sequencing
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